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Scotland can be one step closer to becoming an independent country.
The British government has been forced to play defensively in calls for a second Scottish independence referendum, after the country's largest nationalist party won a landslide victory in its by-elections on Friday.
"The question of the referendum is now a matter of when, not when," Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson over a phone call following the election results, his press office said in a statement.
But the power to give Scotland a referendum on freedom lies in London, not Edinburgh, and Johnson opposed the idea on Saturday, calling it "problem-free and reckless."
So how likely is it that there will be a new Scottish independent survey?
What were the election results in Scotland?
Together, the liberation parties won a majority in the Scottish Parliament in Friday's election.
Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) won 64 seats, one more than in the last election, but the other short of the majority. The Scottish Greens, who also support the independence, won eight seats.
In its pre-election announcement, the SNP promised to hold a new Scottish independence referendum "after the end of the COVID crisis."
"This election is about the need to guide the country safely through the entire epidemic," Sturgeon said before voting. "But it's also about the long-term work of rebuilding and restoring the need, and who is best to lead that."
Why does the Scotland National Party want independence?
Scotland already has one independent poll, in 2014, when the Scots voted for a 55% to 45% residency in the United Kingdom. The British government agreed to hold the poll after the SNP won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, calling it a "one-generation" event.
But support for another poll has risen sharply in the years since 2016, when the UK voted to leave the European Union, an action against more than 62% of Scottish voters.
Following the Brexit poll, the SNP argued that Scotland was being evicted from E. inconsistent with its will and that this "material transformation" allows for another vote in Scottish independence.
What happens next?
While the SNP has promised not to hold a new independence referendum until the end of the COVID-19 crisis, "it was clear about its next steps," said Akash Paun, head of the devolution research program at the Institute for Government, a London-based think tank.
"The SNP will argue that it has a clear mandate and commitment to do this, and that they and their allies have won the majority - and that it would be democratic for the UK government to say no," Paun said, adding that a democratic transfer is more political than legal. “Does the SNP have any way of forcing the U.S. government to pass such a law now? Certainly not. "
Most analysts expect Johnson, who has publicly opposed the idea that one Scottish independence referendum, has rejected a request to hold another. The next step for the SNP would be to present its own bill to the Scottish parliament calling for a referendum, "even if they do not have permission from Westminster to do so," Paun said. This is likely to be overcome with the support of Edinburgh's liberation movements, he said.
That would lay the groundwork for a civil war in the High Court in London, which would be forced to decide whether the Scottish Parliament had the authority to call a referendum on its own. "Indications are that the Supreme Court is likely to block you," Paun said.
How could there be another independent survey?
In the near future, another survey may not be possible. But if the Scots continue to dominate the country's parliament, it will be difficult for U.K. leaders. Rejecting requests to vote for another vote.
The Sturgeon SNP has long been focused on achieving the "political debate" of freedom, insisting that the legal debate will move away from that. Now, the British government is trying to overcome the political controversy of the organization.
Johnson has formed a “union” at his 10th office in Downing Street, and observers predict that his Conservative government will launch a powerful PR campaign focusing on the benefits of UK public spending in Scotland. "It's a very long game: can you persuade enough voters and founders of public opinion in Scotland that the Westminster Conservatives are not against Scotland?" Paun says.
What would the independence of Scotland mean throughout the UK?
The government reportedly fears that if Scotland becomes independent, it could lead to more U.K.
Next on the cards, they feared, would be Northern Ireland, who also voted to stay in E. in 2016, and where support is growing to be merged with the Republic of Ireland, E. member state.
"Scotland will be an interest decision, maybe in the next five to six years and maybe even before that, depending on what happens there," Peter Cardwell, a former special adviser to the two secretaries of the UK government in Northern Ireland, told TIME in April. "If Scotland becomes an independent country, a united Ireland is almost inevitable."
At the top of the list is the NGO body that officially calls on the UK government to hold a new independence referendum, by passing what is known as a “Section 30 order” under Scottish law - the same procedure it used in the 2014 referendum.
It should do so because, although the Scottish Parliament has its own powers, the British Parliament in Westminster still regulates the law on "constitutional matters."
"The SNP will argue that it has a clear mandate and commitment to do this, and that they and their allies have won the majority - and that it would be democratic for the UK government to say no," Paun said, adding that a democratic transfer is more political than legal. “Does the SNP have any way of forcing the U.S. government to pass such a law now? Certainly not. "
Most analysts expect Johnson, who has publicly opposed the idea that one Scottish independence referendum, has rejected a request to hold another. The next step for the SNP would be to present its own bill to the Scottish parliament calling for a referendum, "even if they do not have permission from Westminster to do so," Paun said. This is likely to be overcome with the support of Edinburgh's liberation movements, he said.
That would lay the groundwork for a civil war in the High Court in London, which would be forced to decide whether the Scottish Parliament had the authority to call a referendum on its own. "Indications are that the Supreme Court is likely to block you," Paun said.
How could there be another independent survey?
In the near future, another survey may not be possible. But if the Scots continue to dominate the country's parliament, it will be difficult for U.K. leaders. Rejecting requests to vote for another vote.
The Sturgeon SNP has long been focused on achieving the "political debate" of freedom, insisting that the legal debate will move away from that. Now, the British government is trying to overcome the political controversy of the organization.
Johnson has formed a “union” at his 10th office in Downing Street, and observers predict that his Conservative government will launch a powerful PR campaign focusing on the benefits of UK public spending in Scotland. "It's a very long game: can you persuade enough voters and founders of public opinion in Scotland that the Westminster Conservatives are not against Scotland?" Paun says.
What would the independence of Scotland mean throughout the UK?
The government reportedly fears that if Scotland becomes independent, it could lead to more U.K.
Next on the cards, they feared, would be Northern Ireland, who also voted to stay in E. in 2016, and where support is growing to be merged with the Republic of Ireland, E. member state.
"Scotland will be an interest decision, maybe in the next five to six years and maybe even before that, depending on what happens there," Peter Cardwell, a former special adviser to the two secretaries of the UK government in Northern Ireland, told TIME in April. "If Scotland becomes an independent country, a united Ireland is almost inevitable."
However, as the "tough" version of Brexit introduced by the Johnson-led government has boosted nationalism in Scotland, it has also made hopes of leaving the UK even more difficult, especially if independent Scotland wishes to re-join the EU. it will be vulnerable to trade tests between the two countries.
According to Friday's election, all Scottish territories along the border with England have elected representatives of the Scottish Conservatives, who are opposed to independence.
"The strange thing about Brexit is that it has made it easier for the SNP to fight for freedom for democratic reasons," Paun said. "But it makes the economic crisis of freedom even more difficult."
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