Analysts suggest US military’s warnings of rising threat are more of a
reflection of the deterioration in the US-China relationship rather than
any change in the geopolitics physically.
For the first time in more than half a century, the United States and Japan are expected to make a joint statement this week on Taiwan Strait security following a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.
Although symbolic in nature, the statement would indicate growing concern over the security of the democratic island amid growing tense public warnings from top US military officials about the threat of Beijing invasion, claiming the island is its own.
Admiral John Aquilino recently told a Senate Armed Services committee that taking Taiwan was "a priority" for the Communist Party in China, while US Asia Pacific Governor Phill Davidson said publicly that China could attack in the next six years.
Such fears may seem justified by the threatening tone of Chinese media and the increasing number of PLA airlines at the Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ).
But on the ground in Taiwan, people do not rush to one of the bomb shelters operating on the island or register en masse.
Living under the threat of Chinese troops 70 years ago, the island's 23 million people have come to understand what they think of Taiwan's strange existence: as long as China's military power grows, the invasion is far from over.
Some experts believe that many of the threats to US military might actually be a sign of a shift in US attitudes toward China amid tensions between the world's two world powers.
"The (Chinese Communist Party's) hopes of merging with Taiwan have been clear for decades, and (President) Xi Jinping has made it clear during his tenure that the use of force is on the table," said Eric Lee, a researcher working on the Project. 2049 Center in Arlington, Virginia.
“This challenge is not new. Instead, it reflects the vision of a new threat to the CCP and the PLA in the context of US-China competition. ”
Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Study (CSIS), agrees.
The test, he says, is not based on pain but analyzes the military balance between the United States and China.
‘Harder than the D-Day’
China has intensified its activities around Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen was elected president for the first time in 2016.
While Tsai’s domestic politics is considered to be the most prestigious of the status quo in Taiwan’s complex relations with China, overseas it is associated with the desire for a unique Taiwanese identity that differs from its historical ties with China.
His politics and close ties to his administration with the US have angered Beijing, claiming that Taiwan belongs to him even though he has never ruled the island.
As part of Taiwan's quest for greater political power, Tsai sought to strengthen Taiwan's defense by increasing the defense budget, changing reserves, improving its image in historical institutions and the era of military law, and buying billions of dollars from the US since then.
His superiors also saw the move to revive Taiwan's domestic arms industry, including locally made submarines, armored vehicles, and military aircraft, according to the Department of Defense.
"The CCP has not stopped using force to attack Taiwan, and Chinese troops have continued to strengthen their readiness to fight, as well as their determination to increase the use of force by the CCP," the department said in a statement to Al Jazeera.
“There is always the danger of capturing Taiwan. Whether it is a sudden attack, or a full-blown attack, it will have a profound effect on the survival and development of the country. Therefore, supporting the defense operations of various military bases and the preparation work is a major function of the national army. ”
Towards the end of March, the Ministry of Defense said that entry into the ADIZ of Taiwan had increased so many times that it would no longer be in contact with a plane each time and would instead be followed by arrows. The department said the decision was taken to assess whether the airlines were operating resources and increased the risk of improper or accidental calculation.
And while some, especially in the US, have begun to speculate that the powerful PLA attacks are imminent, many scientists are taking a balanced approach, emphasizing that the Taiwan invasion is a major threat to China.
First, its troops will have to cross the Taiwan Strait 180km (100-mile) with more than 100,000 troops and supplies, according to Michael Tsai, who served as Taiwan's deputy defense minister and became defense minister between 2004 and 2008.
Along the way, they would face air and sea bombings and, if they were able to descend, strong local resistance.
"If Taiwan is attacked by the PLA, more than a second of young people will take action against China's actions," the former defense minister said. “Taiwan is a free and democratic country. We want to live in peace with China but when we are attacked we must respond with some defense. Of course, it will suffer greatly. Many young people will lose their lives, but so will the PLA. ”
There will be other challenges to face, including challenging terrain, unpredictable weather patterns and even hurricanes.
Taiwanese scholar and historian Bill Sharp, a former scholar who visited the National Taiwan University, would have been “more difficult than the arrival of D-Day” because of Taiwan's terrain, bad water, and unpredictable weather. Its coastline also offers a few convenient beaches, he said, with the arrival of "military carriers, tanks, weapons, or a large number of invading troops."
Arrow attacks, meanwhile, can lead to significant loss of human life and destruction of infrastructure and can counteract any invading army.
"China would like to rule Taiwan as it is physically," he said. "As their community is violently attacked, the people of Taiwan will fight against this."
Anonymous the ‘unknowns’
The attack could also attract Taiwan's closest allies, such as the United States and Japan, which puts a lot of anonymity into Chinese leadership.
While the US is not guaranteed to protect the island, it has promised to help the island maintain its “adequate defense capabilities” as part of the 1979 Relations Act in Taiwan.
Gliser of CSIS says it does not believe China is ready to take such drastic measures.
"Every Chinese leader has said the reunion is inevitable," he said. "Xi Jinping's proclamations on Taiwan are not much different from his predecessors," he said, adding that the latest Chinese five-year plan calls for "peaceful development of Cross-Strait relations" with Taiwan.
Some experts believe that most of the threat tests carried out by US troops could actually show domestic transformation within the US with Chinese views. With China-US relations deteriorating, the perception of the PLA threat has also risen, says Lee of Project 2049.
Others also warn that the US is less concerned about the future of Taiwanese people than it is to worry about its Island Chain Strategy, a defense strategy that includes Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and other islands that include China's expansion into the Pacific and near the US.
"The US knows that if China occupies a higher position in the Asia-Pacific, it could have a negative impact compared to US interests, so the US will try to defend the 'first island series'. Taiwan is in a state of planning as part of the first series of the island. If Taiwan loses to China, it could be a PLA military base that will not only threaten Japan but also the US national security interests, ”said former Defense Minister Tsai.
However, experts say that Taiwan's remote islands can still be targeted.
“Holding the outer islands of Taiwan has always been part of the PLA practice. If you look at geography, the outer islands of Taiwan are widespread, the ability to support each other is limited, ”said James Huang, a retired Taiwanese captain who became a journalist.
China could easily block the Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung by taking its 240-acre (593-acre) Pratas Island off the coast of Hong Kong or consolidating its position in the South China Sea by invading the island of Taiping - also known as Ita Abu - Spratly Islands.
Huang said other simple targets would include islands off the coast of China including Liang Island and Gaodeng Island, which have fewer military personnel and are difficult to re-establish the main island of Taiwan.
The Game of Psychological warfare
Although Taiwan may not be facing the same fate soon, it still faces many more challenges.
"Taiwan is no longer China's main goal, but America's," Huang said. "In terms of the biggest threat to Taiwan from China, it is definitely not a traditional military attack."
He believes Beijing's focus is crippling Taiwan's economy and trade.
Faced with a weak economy and a strong neighbor, in non-COVID times, Taiwan faces an important channel heading to China with hundreds of thousands choosing more competitive opportunities there.
"By increasing economic dependence in Taiwan in China, similar to the boiling frog syndrome, Taiwanese people will lower their vigilance," he said.
With the advent of regular airspace, Taiwan has also been plagued by a war of attrition from China's commercial and political influence, as well as the continued pressure to deport Taiwan to any international location, from the United Nations to the International Civil Aviation Organization.
Although the sub-headline is smaller than the PLA pilot flotilla, it could still have a strong impact, warns Tsai.
"For me and many other strategists, we see that China knows that taking action against the military itself could be a very serious situation for them," he said. "Therefore, they are taking soft measures of power, including cyber warfare, psychological warfare, media war by entering Taiwan and obtaining false information in the newspaper in an attempt to influence and mislead people and to try to divide them."
Glaser says that instead of adjusting the force of the Chinese attack, the US will do better to support Taiwan in these other threats.
"The US policy response is not only about strengthening military restraint - we must also be able to justify our ability to intervene and charge higher costs to the PLA - but also to strengthen US economic relations with Taiwan, help Taiwan seize trade ties, and integrate a coalition of countries that will enhance Taiwan's participation in international society and speak out in support of its democracy, ”he said.
There are already signs that may be happening.
On Wednesday, while China was carrying out what it described as a “war” near Taiwan, Biden sent a delegation of loyal senior officials to Taiwan. They will meet with President Tsai on Thursday.
The statement with Japan will be another part of that plan.
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